A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
