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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has vowed to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The election has become an acrimonious face-off, laced with accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with voters' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable comeback victory, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting Mamdani directly. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd